The hottest electrolytic aluminum industry report

2022-08-03
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Electrolytic aluminum industry report: reappearance of Tianliang social and financial aluminum city is expected to be prosperous

domestic demand will improve. In March, the social finance data exceeded expectations, among which the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 657.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1958 billion yuan year-on-year. Considering the sharp decline in taxes in 2019, the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry is expected to rebound; In March, residents' medium and long-term loans increased by 460.5 billion yuan, an increase of 83.5 billion yuan year-on-year, which is related to the recent recovery of the first and second tier real estate market. In 2019, according to the view from Haitong Securities, it is more certain that the growth rate of the construction area will rebound; In March, the financing of non-standard hairdressing products such as hair wax, lotion, cream and foam and the special bonds of local governments increased by 334.9 billion yuan and 187billion yuan respectively year-on-year. In 2019, the growth rate of infrastructure investment picked up with greater certainty. Jinan experimental machinery factory provides the following:

the growth rate of aluminum exports dropped. In the first quarter of 2019, the growth rate of export value was 1.4%. Compared with the -4.58% growth rate in December 2018, the growth rate of sample inlay value has warmed up, but the export growth rate of 13.73% in the first quarter of last year dropped significantly. The domestic aluminum export situation is similar to the overall export trend, but the export decline is smaller. In the first quarter of 2018, the growth rate of domestic aluminum exports was 19.7%, which fell back to 13.6% in the first quarter of 2019 due to the impact of exchange rates, the ratio of aluminum prices to Shanghai and London and other factors

the increment of production resumption at the supply end is limited. As of April, 2019, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity newly put into production was 745000 tons, reduced by 426000 tons, and there was no re production capacity. Therefore, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity in production only increased by 319000 tons. Considering that most of the new capacity in 2019 was put into production in the second half of the year, we expect that the domestic electrolytic aluminum production in 2019 will increase by 460000 tons year-on-year (corresponding to the growth rate of 1.3%). In addition, we emphasize here that the production capacity will be much lower than expected, hoping to attract the attention of investors. First of all, in 2018, the total production of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced by 3.03 million tons, of which only 1.11 million tons will be reduced due to losses, while most of the remaining 1.92 million tons will be permanently shut down due to the transfer of indicators. Therefore, the production capacity that can be restored in 2019 is limited. Secondly, most of the loss capacity is reduced between the alumina price of about 3000 yuan/ton and the electrolytic aluminum price of yuan/ton. Therefore, we have reason to infer that the cash cost of these loss capacity will be above the range of 12900 yuan/ton to 13700 yuan/ton when the current alumina price is 2700 yuan/ton. However, the spot price of electrolytic aluminum once reached 14000 yuan/ton recently, and there is still no production capacity, which certifies our view, Therefore, we have reason to infer that the price of electrolytic aluminum needs to be raised to about 14500 yuan/ton before electrolytic aluminum enterprises have the power to resume production

the inventory was removed, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum was greatly repaired. After nearly two months of stock accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has reached an inflection point in mid March. Since March 18, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated 119000 tons. In addition, recently, the aluminum price has continued to rise, while the alumina price has declined. Since the beginning of the year, the profit of electrolytic aluminum has increased by about 1000 yuan/ton, and the industry profit has been repaired quickly. We believe that the main reason for the current loss of the electrolytic aluminum industry is that the high inventory depresses the industry's profits, so the de inventory will be the core driving force of this round of aluminum price rise. It is estimated that the gap between supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum will reach 700000 tons in 2019, and the de stocking will drive the industry to repair profits

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